Of recent, the government of Nigeria has been keen in changing the narrative of rice production viz. striving to make the country self-sufficient in rice production. To achieve this, various efforts viz. import ban, credit support programmes etc were embarked upon to boost domestic production in order to meet its demand and possibly engage in exportation soonest. It is in view of this that this research was conceptualized to see whether this goal is feasible or the country would remain a net importer. Time series data which spanned for a period of 58 years (1961-2018) and covered production, area, yield and producer prices were used. The data source was FAO data bank and the collected data were analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. The empirical evidence showed that growth rate in the production of rice through the economic reform periods was driven majorly by area expansion with technological effect been marginal. In addition, the current acreage allocation was governed by price, area and institutional factors. Furthermore, rice production has been marked by virulent instability across all the reform periods, thus the country’s rice production has not been in the comfort zone. In addition, the empirical evidence showed area risk and uncertainty-climate change to be the major factors responsible for production variability across the reform periods. Besides, area effect predominates in determining the production growth of rice throughout the economic periods. The future food security of rice in the decade ahead is not promising given that the production trend of rice would be fluctuating, thus a threat to the country’s economic viz. rice food security and foreign reserve. Therefore, realistic and holistic policies are needed to change the future narrative of the country’s rice food security; otherwise the country will remained a net importer.