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description Journal article public Economic Affairs

Forecasting of Potato Prices in India: An Application of ARIMA Model

Ravi Ranjan Kumar
Published 16 Dezembro 2020

Abstract

In the present paper, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models developed to forecast the prices of potato using time series data of eighteen years from 2002-2019. The best models selected by comparing Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The study revealed that ARIMA (1,1,2), ARIMA (2,1,1)(0,0,2)[12], ARIMA (2,1,2), ARIMA (1,1,4)(0,0,1)[12], ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,1,2)[12], ARIMA (0,1,0) (0,1,1)[12], and ARIMA (3,1,3) were the best fitted models for forecasting of price of potato for the states of Utter Pradesh, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Punjab, Tripura and India respectively. The prices of potato in Utter Pradesh, West Bengal and India will be increasing with the first-quarter providing the highest price. The prices of potato in Madhya Pradesh and Tripura will be highest in the fourth quarter. In Punjab, the prices of potato will be increasing with the third-quarter. The forecast shows that market prices of potato in Utter Pradesh, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Punjab, Tripura, and overall India would be ruling in the highest value of .1208 `/qt, 1812 `/qt, 1345 `/qt, 1712 `/qt, 1354 `/qt, 2636 `/ qt, and 1715 `/qt respectively for the year 2020.

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